I don't watch football, basketball, hockey or anything else sportswise, so the closest I come to a superbowl event is the Oscars. I watch, junk food at the ready, wine poured, and care about what people wear, wince at the bad speeches and pre-guess all the major categories.
And so, before the event, I'm going on record as to what I think will win. It's not the most educated guess, as I still haven't seen True Grit, or The Social Network, but when has not knowing something stopped me from having an opinion.
So here goes.
Best Picture - I'm going with the King's Speech here. It has a lot of awards going into this, and based on previous history, specifically, Forrest Gump winning over Pulp fiction, it's more likely to win.
Best director - I'm going with David Fincher here. He's overdue for some serious recognition. I'm a huge fan of Seven, and Fight Club, and to be honest, I loved King's Speech, but I think it was successful largely due to the acting and screenplay.
Best Actor - Colin Firth. No explanation required.
Best Actress - Natalie Portman seems like the best bet to win. I have a longstanding affection for Annette Benning, and she was amazing in The Kids are Alright, but Portman was spectacular in Black Swan, completely convincing.
Best supporting Actor - Christian Bale - doing what he does best, completely disappearing into a role. But a part of me wants Geoffrey Rush to win, for the small moments in King's Speech, where he expressed so much with just the look in his eyes.
Best Supporting Actress - Hailee Stanfield for True Grit - although this is really close with Melissa Leo for The Fighter.
Best Adapted screenplay - The Social network.
Best original screenplay - the King's Speech
Best animated film - Toy Story 3
I know I've missed some important categories, but these cover most of the awards.
Any one out there have their own Oscar predictions? Do you want
12 comments:
Sinead I agree with all those!
It always seems like "one" of the big 4 acting awards is a surprise...but I don't think so this year. (Although I think it goes to Melissa Leo).
And I too will comment on the dresses, the speeches, the bad jokes.
Franco and Hathaway???? It just seems odd to me, but who knows.
I am totally looking forward to Franco and Hathaway - I think it could be magic - could be terrible since most of the time I want to punch ehr in the face, but Franco...oh Franco.
I can not believe you're going with teh True Grit character - honestly? She was a cariacture to me - never changing, always spunky. I'm with melissa leo too. And I'm not totally invested in the best picture this year though I loved the Fighter wtih all my heart, I don't think it stands much of a chance against either Kings Speech or social network. Though in all honesty, the most perfect movie of the year was toy story 3 - if it won, I would be delighted. totally thrilled. Did you finally watch that, sinead? Did you cry? Did your heart of stone melt?
I am also looking forward to Franco and Hathaway, but Molly, he's usually the one I want to punch and she is adorable.. seriously, in the promos, she's cute.
If I had my pick in best supporting, I'd give it to Jackie Weaver, a movie no one saw, so her performance, to even get noticed, had to be spectacular, but seriously, I saw none of these movies, so I'm talking from a basis of nothing..
And I did finally see Toystory 3, I loved it, but no tears... when during the movie was I supposed to cry?
Come on - are you kidding? When they were all about to be burned? You didn't tear up? When Andy gave the toys away with such loving care? your heart, sinead...your stone cold heart.
I can totally see you wanting to punch him. and I have no idea who Jackie Weaver is - clearly, I need to see more movies...
The people I want to win rarely do... but I think that will probably be the list. (Even though they aren't my personal picks, except maybe Christian Bale. He so deserves to win.)
I think Hailee might pull out the best supporting actress one because I've heard Melissa Leo got just a little too blatant in her campaigning and it might have backfired on her.
But it is crazy to me that Hailee is up for best supporting when clearly she was the lead of that movie... (In what universe wasn't she the lead???) But I guess they do that with newer, younger actors sometimes... Put them in the lower category where they have a better chance to get nominated.
I'm also personally rooting for the Canadian film Incendies that's up for best foreign language film. Biutiful will win (because of all the campaigning Julia Roberts did), but I want Incendies to win. Those are the only two of the foreign language films I've seen, and they're both great films... So I guess I'll be happy either way, but rooting for the home team. :)
I haven't seen The Fighter yet - or True Grit (it left my theater way too early) thank heavens for "on demand."
But I did see Melissa Leo interviewed. She was the biggest dork evah! I mean bad clothes, bad hair. She was goofy and awkward and silly.
Then I saw a clilp of the movie... and I was like NO WAY. These are NOT the same two humans... for that and that alone I would give it her. I mean talk about transformation.
LOL about Toy Story. That is the only best picture nominated film I haven't seen this year.
I've even seen two of the documentaries and two of the foreign language films... but no Toy Story. I did mean to go... Just never did.
The documentary, Exit Through the Gift Shop was pretty awesome by the way. I hope it wins.
And Molly, stop being mean to Hailee. That was hard dialogue to deliver believably. That story's a fairy tale. Not meant to be real, I don't think. :)
I am now firmly in her camp (just to be contrary) although secretly I kind of think Amy Adams deserves it. Less showy performance than Melissa Leo, but she was really acting. I've seen Melissa Leo do parts like that before. There's a reason they cast her... But Amy Adams as a tough chick? She was good.
I've only seen The King's Speech and The Social Network. They were both very very good. I liked The King's Speech better, but there was a subtlety to the message behind The Social Network that kept me thinking about it for days. Plus, well, Aaron Sorkin is a god.
Everyone told me NOT to see Toy Story 3. I'm a bit of a cryer to start with and was sending my oldest off to college. Apparently people were afraid I'd completely dehydrate.
I saw the King's speech back before the marketing people were proclaiming it the most heartwarming, life changing spectacle of all time.
so I went in and had a lovely surprise.
Seeing it now, with all the expectation of so many oscar noms behind it, I'm not sure I'd love it as much...
I'm a little afraid to see Social Network because of what I think it should be and I'll be disappointed.
Maureen, I'm hoping for Incendies as well.
Eileen, Toy story isn't a weeper... because my heart is stone.
I'll do the crying for both of us. Andy and I went through nearly an entire box of tissues during The Blind Side if that gives you any idea . . . Although in my defense, he's worse than me. I remember catching him crying at a Rugrats special one time.
I don't want to rub it in -but I am at a spa right now. Not getting spa stuff, some friends are doing that, but I am drinking beer, looking out at lake simcoe and writing. Effing fantastic!!!
Eileen - don't listen to her. You will cry. And cry and cry.
Social network is a hard one to peg - so little heart, so much brain. It's totally worth seeing, because Sorkin is a god, but I think Sinead, you'd love the subtelty of it. The nuancedness. Yep. My beer told me that's a word.
Molly... I think I do hate you a little at this second. But only because I'm having a bad day. :)
I think Sinead will like The Social Network, too. So would her DH. Watch it.
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